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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:24 am 
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Alien wrote:
I don't know how much help this could be to you, but some people got together and collated a lot of data on the pellets. It's where A friend of mine found the 19.5/50/19.5 recipe mentioned above ...
Er'cana Pellet Database

I hope it helps
Alien


Thanks -- I've uploaded some data to it -- need to find better ANOVA software to run multi-factor that can deal with at least two-factor interactions as it's obvious to me the main factors -- Time, Pressure and Temperature -- have one or more interactions, and suspect it's mostly Pressure and Temperature. Had some really nifty stat tools where I used to work, but they paid the annual license fees which were quite high (obviously set for commercial/corporate use).

If I find the "right stuff" I can ultimately do regression and determine equations that will characterize the process -- i.e. predict score given the three input values. With that you can optimize a process. And it doesn't take a bazillion experiment runs to do it (with the proper stat tools).

Thanks
John


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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 2:43 am 
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In your experiments, did you consider the fact that the factory is running on minimum efficiency? It's been left for dacay for how many centuries? There are no resources pouring into to whatever stores are left. Also only one vat is filled to its optimum. And this vat is connected to oven #4. It's actually the only oven that really contributes to the pellet score.

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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:22 pm 
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I have been using several different Pellet Recipes that have a 2 hour cook time with an averaged score of 978 points (minimum of 952 - max of 1000 Points)(200 Lake Points) per pellet.

The Program used to develop them comes from the Beta days of URU and is called HURU Easy-Bake Oven
http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/HuruOven.zip

another Pellet calculator that can be used is located at
http://www.the-open-cave.net/index.php/ ... calculator

1st 2 hour recipe
Ovens 1,2 & 3 (19.5, Max, 45) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/1-2-3_ ... Max-45.jpg
Oven 4 (19.5, 45, 19.5) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/4_set_195-45-195.jpg

2nd 2 hour recipe
Ovens 1,2 & 3 (19.5, Max, Max) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/1-2-3_ ... ax-Max.jpg
Oven 4 (19.5, Max, 19.5) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/4_set_195-Max-195.jpg

3rd 2 hour recipe
Oven 1 (20, 32, 36) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven1_set40_64_72.jpg
Oven 2 (19, 39, 32) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven2_set38_78_64.jpg
Oven 3 (19, 31, 35) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven3_set_38_62_70.jpg
Oven 4 (19, 41, 19) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven4_set38_82_38.jpg

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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 11:56 am 
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cpt-jericho wrote:
In your experiments, did you consider the fact that the factory is running on minimum efficiency? It's been left for dacay for how many centuries? There are no resources pouring into to whatever stores are left. Also only one vat is filled to its optimum. And this vat is connected to oven #4. It's actually the only oven that really contributes to the pellet score.


This is interesting and I will try a few runs just to see what happens. If this is the case, then the values used for the other three shouldn't matter at all, and sorting out which oven is #4 would be trivial if all the ovens to the same values.

[Hmmm . . . ]

Thanks
John


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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:05 pm 
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Wamduskasapa wrote:
I have been using several different Pellet Recipes that have a 2 hour cook time with an averaged score of 978 points (minimum of 952 - max of 1000 Points)(200 Lake Points) per pellet.

The Program used to develop them comes from the Beta days of URU and is called HURU Easy-Bake Oven
http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/HuruOven.zip

another Pellet calculator that can be used is located at
http://www.the-open-cave.net/index.php/ ... calculator

1st 2 hour recipe
Ovens 1,2 & 3 (19.5, Max, 45) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/1-2-3_ ... Max-45.jpg
Oven 4 (19.5, 45, 19.5) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/4_set_195-45-195.jpg

2nd 2 hour recipe
Ovens 1,2 & 3 (19.5, Max, Max) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/1-2-3_ ... ax-Max.jpg
Oven 4 (19.5, Max, 19.5) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/4_set_195-Max-195.jpg

3rd 2 hour recipe
Oven 1 (20, 32, 36) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven1_set40_64_72.jpg
Oven 2 (19, 39, 32) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven2_set38_78_64.jpg
Oven 3 (19, 31, 35) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven3_set_38_62_70.jpg
Oven 4 (19, 41, 19) - http://www.Wamduskasapa.com/Myst/Oven4_set38_82_38.jpg


I will look at these but have reluctance to play with them yet. I want to maintain the untainted "mind of a child" until I've done more analyses, the first four stages of which I should post here.

Thanks
John


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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 12:25 pm 
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jalind wrote:
and sorting out which oven is #4 would be trivial if all the ovens to the same values.

[Hmmm . . . ]

Thanks
John

If you empty all the silos in the control room, there is one silo you cannot empty, that is oven #4, and if you follow on the map, the pipe coming from that silo, you can see which oven it is.

As you run into the oven room, with the silos behind you, and the pellet room still ahead, oven #4 should be the first oven on the left of the doorway to the silos.

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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:14 pm 
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Alien wrote:
If you empty all the silos in the control room, there is one silo you cannot empty, that is oven #4, and if you follow on the map, the pipe coming from that silo, you can see which oven it is.

As you run into the oven room, with the silos behind you, and the pellet room still ahead, oven #4 should be the first oven on the left of the doorway to the silos.


Thanks -- using the control room map had occurred to me as one means, but not yet important for what I've done thus far -- and will stash this information away for future reference. In play I've always turned everything back on even though it's apparent 3 of the 4 large vats never have anything in them regardless of the control room settings.

Also of note is 4 vats and 4 ovens producing 5 pellets, and the logical conclusion to be drawn from that is a single pellet consuming 80% (4/5th's) the capacity of a vat and oven. How that gets allocated to each pellet is yet another possible complication if the output of the ovens isn't mixed together (look at the pellet plate that's divided into quadrants for one means), and setting all the ovens the same should at least minimize if not eliminate that effect down into noise level compared to the effects time, pressure and temperature have.

As an aside:
One can create an adequately accurate predictive model for a process within a given set of operating constraints, even if it does not model the process descriptively. (Three types of models: predictive, descriptive and prescriptive). A classic example is the Ptolemaic geocentric model created from centuries of planetary observations that used epicycles to predict planetary behavior. It worked quite well as as predictive model, albeit considerably more complex than the correctly descriptive heliocentric Copernican model (over which Copernicus - a priest - took untold "heat" from The Church). In their day, when Copernicus dared to challenge Ptolemy and Aristotle, neither model was a better predictor of planetary position.

John


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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 2:26 pm 
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jalind wrote:
This is interesting and I will try a few runs just to see what happens. If this is the case, then the values used for the other three shouldn't matter at all, and sorting out which oven is #4 would be trivial if all the ovens to the same values.

Ovens #1-3 can contribute approx. 40% of the pellet score if all ovens are set correctly. I meant, that only #4 is really in a working order and that it scores the most points compared to the other ovens.

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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 4:46 pm 
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Er'cana pellet production is essentially a manufacturing process that is ostensibly controlled by Time, Pressure and Temperature. These descriptors are arbitrarily presumptive from the symbols, and it matters not one iota what they actually are, if one or more be something different. These are merely labels for them. Aside from completing the combination of Er'cana and Ahnonay using a pellet drop to properly illuminate the lower Bahro cave and reveal the Cleft imager "code," it's my understanding Kadish created Er'cana to harvest materials and produce pellets to feed the lake algae and illuminate the Uru cavern. The pellet efficacy tool gives a numerical score for each pellet that's placed in it, and the higher the score, the better the pellet is for the Uru cavern lake and resulting illumination. Even if this isn't entirely accurate, higher scores are considered "better."

The goal then is to find settings for Time, Pressure and Temperature that will maximize the pellet score. One could try various combinations of settings to see what happens, and seek the optimal directly by trial and error. That's usually not very efficient, nor is it conducive to creating a mathematical model that can predict the score for a specific control settings, whether or not they've been used before. A structured approach to characterizing the process and creating a model for it is much more efficient and ultimately should be much more effective. Thus, the effort at the outset is to obtain data that can be used to characterize process response (pellet score) to control settings and not to directly find the optimal ones. The first step is a set of "screening runs" to determine whether each control affects pellet score, and to determine if there may be interactions between controls (i.e. one control setting changes how another affects process response). The customary method is selecting a "high" and "low" setting for each control and designing an experiment performing a series of "runs" using them. The absolute control limits could be used (in this case 1 and 50) but that is generally inadvisable. My personal, professional experience doing these analyses in real life has reinforced that. Could have used 5 and 45 for each, but decided to bring them in a little more to 10 and 40.

From an experiment design perspective, there are 3 controls and if we use two levels for each, there are 2^3 = 8 combinations for a full factorial. However, we don't need to run all 8 to learn something about the process. We can run half of them in a specific half-fraction design of 4 runs called a Latin Square and still learn quite a bit. That we get 5 pellets from each run eliminates the necessity to perform "replications" of each run, provided we have confidence the process is reasonably stable (i.e. repeatable). Results might vary for another run using the same settings, but it is presumed that variance will be insignificant compared to the effect changing settings will have. If it isn't stable, then doing any experimentation, structured or otherwise, is utterly futile and the first goal in real life is stabilizing the process to make it reasonably repeatable. There could be a 3-way interaction among all the settings, but that would be rare indeed (in real life). The Latin Square used confounds any 3-way (time, press, and temp) interaction across the main effects individually and any of the three possible 2-way interactions there might be among pairs of them. The four initial runs used the following settings:

Time Press. Temp.
    10 -- 10 -- 10
    10 -- 40 -- 40
    40 -- 10 -- 40
    40 -- 40 -- 10

In experiment design jargon, this type of design is called "orthogonal." Note that each level for each control occurs twice, and the combination used for any two control settings is not repeated (e.g. Time = 10 and Temp = 10 occurs once, and only once). The first discovery made was finding a "process edge" or boundary. Run number 3 with time and temperature both set to 40 resulted in a zero score. This is not good as it's considered a process "failure." A fifth run done with time, temperature and pressure all set to 40 also resulted in a zero score, another process failure. The problem, if 40 is used for the high level of Time and Temperature, is not knowing how far below that the two must be paired to produce a score greater than zero, even if it's tiny. A sixth run using 37.5 for Time and Temperature (with 10 for Pressure) resulted in a non-zero score. The other two runs with Time and Temperature set to 40 were rerun using 37.5 with the following results, averaging the scores for the 5 pellets produced in each run.

Time Press. Temp. Avg. Score
    10 --- 10 --- 10 ==== 14.6
    10 --- 40 --- 37.5 == 297.2
    37.5 - 10 --- 37.5 == 34.0
    37.5 - 40 --- 10 === 793.4

Rather than stare at a table of numbers trying to visualize what they mean, graphs can show very quickly how the different settings affect process response. The following three graphs were generated using this data to examine time, pressure and temperature from three different perspectives:

Image

Image

Image

Of interest is the second graph which shows, quite compellingly, an interaction between Time and Temperature. If Time is low, increasing temperature increases the score. However, if Time is high, increasing temperature plummets the score, exactly the opposite effect. So, in eight runs we have found:
  • A process boundary
  • All three controls are significant (they all affect score)
  • An interaction between the Time and Temperature settings
Dealing with the process boundary consumed four of the eight runs.

Because of the interaction, it would be useful to do the other half of the factorial to better understand (and completely confirm) the Time-Temperature interaction. The data already accumulated can be reused, requiring only four runs. That will be done in Part II.

John


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 14, 2014 6:51 pm 
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In Part I we did four useful screening runs with some interesting results. The next four runs used the remaining settings of the full 2^3 factorial. If you examine them, they are also an orthogonal Latin Square, and could have been used for the first four runs. It also has two of each setting, and no pair of settings appears more than once. Which block was used initially was an arbitrary decision.

    Time Press. Temp. Avg. Score
    10 ---- 10 -- 37.5 == 83.0
    10 ---- 40 -- 10 === 48.6
    37.5 -- 10 -- 10 === 297.6
    37.5 -- 40 -- 37.5 = 118.0

Now we can look at more graphs and the following three were created using data from all eight runs, with each one . The first and third highlight the Time-Temperature interaction, while the second shows how Pressure acts more as an amplifier or attenuator of the Time-Temperature interaction.

Image

Image

Image

Takes a while looking at those to comprehend them. A a 3-D surface graph can be used to show the Time-Temperature interaction better. With three controls, a 4-D hyper-cube would be required to show the effect of all three together (three dimensions for the three controls plus a fourth for the resulting score). Not possible in a 3-D world. Instead, Time, Temperature and the Average Score is shown in two surface graphs, one for each of the two Pressure levels.

Image

Image

In comparing the two, you can see the Time-Temperature interaction with the diagonal "fold" in the surface, and that the two different Pressure levels (10 and 40) don't change its shape, but merely amplify or attenuate the resulting score. This diagonal fold is a classic characteristic of an interaction between two factors (i.e. two controls or independent variables).

We're only done with the "screening" runs. If we stopped here, after using just two levels, a high and low, for each of the controls, we would be making an assumption the effects these controls have are linear, and that the straight lines we have drawn between the high and low points are adequate. The extreme low with Time and Temperature both high, at both a high and low Pressure setting makes me suspicious that one or more of these are non-linear, probably a quadratic (parabolic cup or hill) or perhaps two different linear responses joined by a point of discontinuity, at which the slope of the line changes in the other direction (V or inverted-V shape). To discover whether or not that is present requires more runs, and we will introduce mid-points between the highs and lows, while maintaining settings that allow use to continue to use all eight runs we have thus far. That will be in Part III.

John


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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Tue Dec 05, 2017 9:10 pm 
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Shorah,
I was told that now (2017) you have to have a buddy help you drop the pellets in order to get the pics on the walls of the lower cave. why?
I can drop all of the 5 pellets and link to the final shell in Ahnonay and get there in plenty of time to watch for the last one. ONLY.....the walls don't light up, showing the pictures. it should take only 10 min and 41 seconds to happen and I have tried several times by myself and this still doesn't help.
when I was playing in 2004-2010, I could do it by myself.
please advise.
thanks
Nita

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 Post subject: Re: Er'cana pellets
PostPosted: Wed Dec 06, 2017 11:34 am 
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The timings are different for the online game, the pellet drops almost immediately so you need a buddy to do the drop for you. You will be remembering the offline game.

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