CAVCON Meter

Lehnah · **Posted:** Thu Feb 06, 2014 10:31 am

Marten wrote:

I don't mean to discourage people from contributing with less frequency if that is what works better for them. Every dollar helps. Just remember that the road to CAVCON stability rests in the overall stability of the donations measured on a month-to-month basis, and so for those of us who can do that, we need to do that.

So if I was to donate $20 every two months rather than $10 every month to avoid the PayPal fees it wouldn't be as useful to you?

Chuckles58 · **Posted:** Thu Feb 06, 2014 3:39 pm

Marten wrote:

Just remember that the road to CAVCON stability rests in the overall stability of the donations measured on a month-to-month basis, and so for those of us who can do that, we need to do that.

That sounds a lot like the advice on dropping pellets to light the lake, LOL.

Tai'lahr · **Posted:** Thu Feb 06, 2014 5:08 pm

Chuckles58 wrote:

Marten wrote:

Just remember that the road to CAVCON stability rests in the overall stability of the donations measured on a month-to-month basis, and so for those of us who can do that, we need to do that.

That sounds a lot like the advice on dropping pellets to light the lake, LOL.

It's as if they were training us for this day. :wink:

Mac_Fife · **Posted:** Thu Feb 06, 2014 8:09 pm

Lehnah wrote:

Marten wrote:

I don't mean to discourage people from contributing with less frequency if that is what works better for them. Every dollar helps. Just remember that the road to CAVCON stability rests in the overall stability of the donations measured on a month-to-month basis, and so for those of us who can do that, we need to do that.

So if I was to donate $20 every two months rather than $10 every month to avoid the PayPal fees it wouldn't be as useful to you?

I think Marten is simply saying that a steady flow of donations helps Cyan more than swinging highs and lows. Someone donating $120 once a year rather than $10 a month kinda skews things in that one month. Just do what you're comfortable with; that might vary from one month to the next.

JWPlatt · **Posted:** Thu Feb 06, 2014 8:12 pm

Tai'lahr wrote:

Chuckles58 wrote:

Marten wrote:

Just remember that the road to CAVCON stability rests in the overall stability of the donations measured on a month-to-month basis, and so for those of us who can do that, we need to do that.

That sounds a lot like the advice on dropping pellets to light the lake, LOL.

It's as if they were training us for this day. :wink:

I think "UruLive --> UU --> MOUL --> Pellets --> MOULa/Open Source --> CAVCON" was on one of Cyan's whiteboards in the early 2000s. There was something hazy after CAVCON that you can't quite make out. You all don't think they make this up as they go along do you?

...just tooling down the road with the window open...

JW

Acorn1 · **Joined:** Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:46 pm **Posts:** 985

Ahem, Cyan, we don't even have an estimated figure for Jan yet, and it's now 8 Feb.... :wink:

Marten · **Posted:** Tue Feb 11, 2014 12:19 am

Mac_Fife wrote:

Lehnah wrote:

So if I was to donate $20 every two months rather than $10 every month to avoid the PayPal fees it wouldn't be as useful to you?

I think Marten is simply saying that a steady flow of donations helps Cyan more than swinging highs and lows. Someone donating $120 once a year rather than $10 a month kinda skews things in that one month. Just do what you're comfortable with; that might vary from one month to the next.

Thanks Mac. That's what I was trying to say.

And if we have enough people donating every-other-month, well, if half of them are on an odd month cycle and half are on an even month cycle, it'll balance itself out in the end, anyway.

Charura · **Joined:** Wed Oct 14, 2009 4:14 pm **Posts:** 1773

There you go, Acorn1... January Final 3.0!

Acorn1 · **Joined:** Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:46 pm **Posts:** 985

Charura wrote:

There you go, Acorn1... January Final 3.0!

Thanks! Worth waiting for! :mrgreen:

Emor D'ni Lap · **Joined:** Sun Aug 12, 2007 6:15 am **Posts:** 587

Marten wrote:

Back on topic: Now that we have some empirical data (that is happily not far off from Mac_Fife's from-the-ground-up cost estimate), and now that we have RAWA's clarification... let's revisit:

How do we get to CAVCON 5 (revised)

RAWA put forth 2 criteria, one of which we cannot control. So focusing on the one we can affect, it appears we need more consistency in donations month to month. RAWA suggested CAVCON 4.7 through 4.9 (170% to 190% of expenses).

To put that into real numbers, we need something like 80 people donating $10 a month, or 40 people donating $20 a month. Consistently.

Now that we understand this... can we make this happen? If we believe it is possible, and if we want to do this, what steps can we take to make it happen?

Marten, I'm not sure your thoughtful question months ago got the response it deserved.
And I'm certainly not claiming to be able to deliver an appropriate answer!

But I'm going to offer my notions on the topic, futile though it may be.

It does sound as though CAVCON5 is a separately-graded condition from CAVCONs 1 through 4.
That is to say, funding a CAVCON5 state is neither a constant (K) number, nor is it predicated on withdrawals from the general fund in the way states 2 though 4 are. Nor is a mere breakthrough past the top of CAVCON4 into CAVCON5 status any guarantee of enough funding to actually DO anything, as demonstrated in a chart I posted here years ago.

As Marten says, the best way for donations to accrue is through regular and consistent donation levels.
But many of us are unable to donate on a consistent basis.
And many others will only donate when they sense a need.
However, that "need" may take a couple different forms.
One may be when CAVCON dips perilously low and panic sets in.
Another "need" can occur when CAVCON is lifting up toward the upper limit of a number and folks want to kick it into the next state up, as we've seen recently with the Kickstarter campaign for Obduction....and this can be an equally powerful motivator.

Unfortunately, the way CAVCON has operated so far is NOT conducive to that second motivator,
since CAVCON operates on a monthly cycle, and the CAVCON feedback loop is NOT what you could call "immediate" in any sense of the word.

Look at what happens in the course of a month: the first two weeks are kind of an assessment period. By halfway through the month, we should be able to draw a trajectory toward where we want to be and if we aren't already halfway there, we need to step up donations. By the third week, we should be able to see whether our efforts are having any impact, and during that last week of the month people should be able to view daily and even hourly changes. This (nearly) real-time ability to see numbers changing is, I believe, what makes campaigns like Kickstarter work.

There are certainly ways to easily display near-realtime donation tallies, for those that are interested.
For instance, PayPal has what they call a "Giving Widget" that can be easily installed on a website, displaying current donation totals and other info, at the discretion of the account owner.

Do I think Cyan will implement anything like this? No.
Partly because I think their efforts are elsewhere currently, and partly because I don't see a way to reconcile this kind of transparency with the way Cyan prefers to keep the actual costs and donations to CAVCON obscured.

Nev'yn · **Posted:** Wed Feb 26, 2014 5:39 am

@Emor: Thanks for postin' in this thread...I'd forgotten to send in a donation for the month, until now.

(/me salutes)

Acorn1 · **Joined:** Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:46 pm **Posts:** 985

Emor D'ni Lap wrote:

Unfortunately, the way CAVCON has operated so far is NOT conducive to that second motivator,
since CAVCON operates on a monthly cycle, and the CAVCON feedback loop is NOT what you could call "immediate" in any sense of the word.

I do agree!

We've had no rolling update at all this month apart from the initial post on Feb 13th - which was when we got last month's fig. Running with a 2-week lag in a 4-week cycle, it's not going to be possible to respond to urgent signals. But Cyan have a lot of other things on their minds so, as you say, Emor, we shouldn't expect this to change.

Acorn1 · **Joined:** Sat Jan 12, 2013 8:46 pm **Posts:** 985

wow, 4.4 for the final Feb fig! :mrgreen:

Charura · **Joined:** Wed Oct 14, 2009 4:14 pm **Posts:** 1773

And here I was getting worried when I kept getting CAVCON 2.3 logging on...Thank you to whomever(s) spiked this to 4.4...I couldn't do it this month..I had books to buy...

Annabelle · **Posted:** Fri Mar 07, 2014 10:44 pm

Someone had some spare change to donate :wink:

4.4 that's terrific!

CAVCON Meter

Who is online